[Killietalk] BS information

["Koran, David HQ02" <David_Koran at hq02.usace.army.mil>]

Where are brine shrimp egg prices going?

Each year I look into the crystal ball and try to predict where things are
headed.  It appears that the cyst harvest began early this year and if you
look at the reports the amount of cysts collected approaches 5 million pounds
of unprocessed cysts, about a million pounds less than last year's final
total.  My first look was to see where the current lake temperature was since
the Artemia start producing resting eggs as the temperature slides through
the 50's.  October for Salt Lake produced above average temperatures so one
might assume that the harvest season could go long if the weather cooperates.
Currently the sampling shows nauplii as well as the adults but there are as
many males as females present among the adults so the shrimp are set up to
produce resting eggs although the females may not be heavy with eggs just yet
(nauplii were produced asexually).

http://wildlife.utah.gov/gsl/brineshrimp/

If you look at the Oct. 30 report you would see the sampling indicates that
they are averaging about 83 cysts per liter of water.  The Utah DNR folks
suspend the harvest when the sampling value drops below 22.  That is really a
first warning and they sample again over 2-3 weeks.  If the numbers rise,
then they resume the harvest but if not they issue a termination order.  On
the other hand you would notice that they have harvested about half of the
cysts from the shore.  Based on past information this is in the range of
typical harvests and they probably won't be adding much to this total.  The
weather towards the end of November can get pretty cold and by Thanksgiving
for most practical purposes the harvest is over.  A week with slim pickin's
means it is pretty financially unsound to keep boats on the water and spotter
planes in the area to find dwindling rafts of "eggs".  Just based on numbers
I remember from the past I would predict that the harvest will be greater
than last year's but probably not like the large harvests in the recent past.
So I would say at this point prices for cysts will probably continue where
they are at or maybe drop a wee bit.  One must always be mindful that in
processing the cysts they might have a different density than in past years
or react differently to the standard test conditions they use to grade the
cysts.  The harvest could be very good to good meaning most of the cyst
batches hatching in the 85 and 90%+ range or only fair 80% or lower.  If the
later condition is the case, after the first batches are processed at the end
of the year you might see dropping prices for lower grades but rising prices
for the better grades.

Back to the financial desk...

Dave Koran

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