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Re: Size of market

On Wed, 20 Sep 2000 21:08:35 -0600  gomckenz at geosql_com in APD #557 wrote:

>First, I live in Calgary where the trading population of the area for LFS
>might be 1 million people.

Are you telling me that in the Calgary area there is a population of 1 million
possible consumers (ie. total population for the region), or that the specific
cross-section of the population interested in frequenting the LFS is 1 million?

You will not find many places in all of North America with the population of the
greater Toronto area.  You will have a hard time finding any place in the entire
world with the diversity of culture and hobbies.  There is more than likely a
population of about 5 million or more in the immediate Toronto vicinity.  I have
no clue what percentage of those people are interested at all in Aquaria

>There are several vendors who carry Tropica plants

Tropica plants in the Toronto area are very common and you have a vast selection
of places from which to obtain them.

>I'll admit to not knowing the shelf life of these
>plants but it would seem to indicate a sales rate of dozens a year.

I have been to a few places that get very busy when the plants have first
arrived.  Some plants more than likely die off before they are sold, but good
stores will sell dozens of plants a month, not per year.

>Second, a rule of thumb is that the Canadian market for product sales is
>1/10th that of the US based on population and similar spending habits.

Too general for the aquaria hobby.  You have to discount a large population in
the US, and obviously a large population in Canada.  But the percentages by
which you are reducing your sample size will put the ratio at greater than 1:10.

>Unless planted aquariums are much more prevelant in Canada,

I don't doubt this either.  In larger metropolitan areas you will find many
specialty LFS or general LFS with a good concentration on specialty products.
There are still a lot of potential gold-fish bowl buyers, but I'd say Toronto
itself has a disproportionate number of serious aquarists.

Hey James (I figure you're reading in here somewhere) - you mentioned you knew
at least one person responsible for the plants at one LFS.  Any idea what his
take is on volume?

I do not doubt that Canada represents a fairly good market for Tropica.  They
have a good penetration here and account for a significant percentage of the
product available in the stores I have visited.  I have no doubt in my mind that
the market in Europe is far greater than that in the US for their product.  

>I personally have purchased at least 6 Tropica plants in the past year.

Good place to start figuring out numbers.  That's half a dozen from one
purchaser alone.  Not everyone involved in aquaria has access (nor wants access)
to the internet either (in reference to AGA membership, APD membership, etc..)